The Weiner Component V.2 #19 – The Trump Budget

Not too long ago President Trump came out with his proposed budget for the year 2018.  It was heavy with a ten percent increase for the military, had draconian cuts for Social Services cutting some programs and illuminating a large number of others.  It also cut out programs for the arts and for scientific research.  It contained what Trump calls Tax Reform.  This is actually a massive cut for the top Two percent of earners and large corporation decreases in taxes.

 

Looking at his Cabinet the indication is that Trump wants a government of the rich, by the rich, and for the rich.  The groups really harmed by his proposal would be the poor who are totally dependent upon the Federal Government for numerous services and the elderly living upon a fixed income like Social Security or a set retirement that decreases year by year as prices slowly rise due to inflation or otherwise.  Their medical insurance would rise significantly but their coverage or protection by the state would decrease significantly.

 

One can suppose a rapid rise in their death rate of the elderly would benefit the government as their producing days are over and they are only consuming.

******************************

In a recent article on the internet a staunch conservative congratulated President Trump for his stance on the budget but then stated that he did not go far enough.  He apparently felt that Trump’s proposed massive cuts to the United States social programs would still be costing too much money.

 

Trump’s Treasury Secretary, Steven T. Mnuchin, was originally a Wall Street financier.  According to his and several other people who are involved in finance and working for Trump have stated and may well believe that following Trump’s budget will raise the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to 3%.  It was .075 in 2015.

 

These people come from the world of finance.  They are not economists.  To many economists this is wishful thinking nonsense; it’s not about to happen.  In fact with all the Trump cuts, increases in spending, and lowering of taxes for the wealthy the deficit will increase considerably in 2017 and 2018.  Thus significantly upping the National Debt which is currently 19 trillion plus dollars.

 

The National Debt is currently approaching 20 trillion dollars but what it actually is is misunderstood by most people in the country.  Most people consider that this is money owed to countries like China and Japan for the uneven trade that goes on with them.  But this is only partly true.

 

The National Debt consists of two parts: one public and one private.  The public part is the money that the government owns.  It is money that it has lent itself.  The question here is can an entity owe itself money?  In terms of the Federal Government obviously it can.  Several times a year the Federal Reserve transfers billions of dollar in interest to the Treasury.

 

Entities within the government transfer their surplus funds to the general fund.  The government then gives them credit for the transferred funds.  The largest entity to do this is Social Security.  In the 1980s, when Ronald Reagan was President, Social Security was in trouble.  It could conceivably run out of money in the near future.  Congress raised the amounts paid into Social Security by both the individuals and their employers.  And in 1989 Medicare was separated from Social Security.  Additional separate amounts were paid into it by both employers and employees from then on.  Also at this time people who did not pay into Social Security could make payments into Medicare and have it when they retired.

 

From that time on Social Security has had a relatively large surplus.  It is today the largest debt holder of part of the National Debt.  Interestingly Al Gore, when he ran against George W. Bush, has as part of his platform, a lockbox, which would have been banking surplus Social Security funds rather than putting them into the General Fund and spending them.  However with George W. Bush as President the surplus went into the General Fund and was spent.

 

China, Japan and other nations have many individuals and companies within their countries that hold U.S. Government loan papers.  That and loan bonds held by individuals within the United States and other countries would make up the privately held National Debt.

 

The Federal Reserve admits to owning about 50% of the National Debt.  I would estimate it to be more like 60% to 70% of the actual National Debt.

********************************

The FED sells these bonds continually, increasing or decreasing the amount of currency in circulation.  Money is not only cash; it is also credit and debit cards and checks.  The FED regulates the amount of currency in order to control value and limit inflation.  Too much money in circulation decreases the value of the money and too little money being available creates deflation.  The FED has to maintain a balance between the amount of money in circulation and the population of the country.

*****************************

In the minds of most people money is an object of value.  It allows people to have what they need and want.  In fact for most of its history money itself was an object of value acceptable all over the world.  Eventually the amount of gold and silver, which was money in the form of coins, was insufficient in terms of all the business that went on in a country.  There wasn’t enough gold and silver available to conduct the necessary business for the country to function properly.  As a result of this the government of each individual nation withdrew the precious metal and began printing its own currency which functioned within its borders..

 

This began at about the first third of the 20th Century and has continued since then.  Money today in the U.S. is a Federal Reserve Note.  It has no real intrinsic value.  It is merely a means of exchange for goods or services.

 

Adam Smith in 1776 published “An Inquiry into the Wealth of Nations.” In this work, which was strongly influenced by French economists called the physiocrats, Smith developed the basis of the modern capitalistic economics.  The true wealth of a nation is what it produces; its goods and services.  These are it Gross Domestic Product.  They are defined as all the goods and services the nation produces in terms of dollars and cents within a given period of time, a fiscal year.

 

This brings us to the basic concept.  What is the actual wealth of a nation?  Today the United States is the wealthiest nation that has ever existed.  Yet according to our current President we cannot afford to take care of our overall population.  I sometimes think that all modern day Republicans would be much happier if they had lived hundreds of years ago when every individual was responsible for himself and for his family and government merely existed to protect him from foreign invasion.  Looking back historically I wonder if such a time ever really existed.

******************************

By following Trump’s budget the government will massively reduce its spending.  The military will have much more to spend.  Trump has indicated that he will massively increase U.S. presence and involvement in the Middle East.  Much of the military funding will be spent overseas and a large percentage of the tax decrease will go to the upper two percent of the population.  They have not noticeably increased their expenditures when their incomes have increased in the past and the probability is that they will not do so in the present.

 

What will happen with his tax cut, if it comes into existence, is that there will be far less money available in the economy for the purchase of goods and services.  The probability is that because of a lack of funds less money will be spent and less goods and services demanded.  The GDP will actually decrease and it could achieve 0 growth or possibly .01% actual growth or even hit a minus figure,

 

There is also the fact that there is a velocity to money spent in the National Cash Flow.  Money when spent is usually spent three to twelve times.  For example a person shops in a supermarket.  He or she spends twenty dollars.  That money may be used to pay the salary of an employee.  The employee spends that money on dinner in a restaurant.  It can again pay an employee’s salary.  The money keeps getting spent until it becomes part of the Natural Cash Flow that can be three to twelve times.  The $20 can generate $60 to $240 worth of increased productivity.  Conversely if the money is not spent that amount of productivity is cut from the GDP.  All of Trump’s cuts will subtract trillions of dollars from the economy.

 

In addition to bringing a tremendous amount of misery Trump could also bring about a tremendous recession of depression.  We are still working our way out of the Great Recession of 2008.  Trump also wants to get rid of the laws that were passed to avoid that situation from ever occurring again.  Concievably the country could be brought back to the point we had reached in 2008 that almost brought the nation to a worse situation than occurred in 1929, with the Great Depression, which was also brought about by a Republican run government,.  This can be done by following what today could be called Trumponomics.

Congress & the Problems of the United States: Are We Getting Our Money’s Worth?

English: Breakdown of political party represen...

English: Breakdown of political party representation in the United States House of Representatives during the 112th Congress. Blue: Democrat Red: Republican This SVG file was originally hand-written. It contains comments suggesting how to amend it to reflect future changes in Congress. Inkscape reads this file as corrupted, thus changes must be made with a text editor or other program and checked with a browser. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

There are 435 members of the House of Representatives.  Their combined salaries, taken together is $73,950,000 taxpayer dollars per year.  Of these 247 currently are Republicans.  They receive $41,990,000 taxpayer dollars in compensation for serving in the House of Representatives.  Of these 247 House members 40 belong to the Freedom Caucus.  They make up the ultra-conservative far right end of the party.  These people understand compromise as the other side coming to their position; to them anything else in largely unacceptable.

 

On the issue of passing a bill to continue to fund the government the Freedom Caucus, which is made up of Tea Partiers, plus a number of other Republicans had refused to act until funding Planned Parenthood was removed from the bill.  If Planned Parenthood were removed from the bill President Barak Obama stated he would veto the proposed new law.  This brought about the resignation of the Speaker of the House, John Boehner, at the end of September, effective October 31st.  A bill was brought through the Senate and later, the House, continuing the funding of the government through December.  In each case with heavy Democratic participation.  There were not enough Republicans supporting it in either House for the bill to pass without Democratic support.

 

As an aside, the evidence presumably proving Planned Parenthood was guilty of breaking the law in performing abortions and selling fetus tissue for research was highly edited video tapes that were the equivalent of a man entering a house, then in the next scene he or someone entered an apartment, greeted a woman, the camera would switch to an image of a bedroom, and finally the man would exit the house, presumably in the morning.  This was the level of the edited video evidence presented against Planned Parenthood, which the anti-abortion groups took as absolute proof.  In addition some of the video were made by paid actors, hired by an anti-abortion group, discussing the sale of fetus parts.   Planned Parenthood has been investigated numerous times by Congressional Standing Committees and others and has never been legally proven of doing anything illegal.

 

To get back to our primary subject, what we spend on Congress and what we are now getting in return.  If we include the Senate in the cost we are adding an additional $170,000 one hundred times, that’s 17 million dollars.  This does not include the fact that each congressperson in either House has a staff in Washington that can employ up to eighteen permanent members and have an office in their home state.  We are spending well in excess of ½ billion dollars annually upon our law-makers.  For this, especially since they take an oath to uphold the Constitution, we should be able to expect them to do their jobs.  Are they passing laws that help the country develop and prosper?  Are they doing things to lower unemployment?  Is the country moving forward to a better tomorrow?  Are they repaying the taxpayers for electing them to office or are they serving their large contributors who have funded their political campaigns or are many carrying out their own specific agendas?

*******************************

My impression is that most, if not all, of the Republicans elected to Congress have no real understanding of what makes up economics; that they think of the Federal Government functioning on the same level as their households, that so much money comes in every month and once that’s gone the government has to borrow money to spend more, and that additional money has to eventually be paid back.  That is how Microeconomics (small economics) works but that is not how the Federal Government works.

 

The Federal Government, all national governments for that matter, operate under the principles of Macroeconomics (Big Economics).  There is today nothing behind the dollar but the word of the National Government; they own the printing presses.  Money has no intrinsic value today; the government can print any amount it wishes.  They do this by legislating the amount that can be printed and the Federal Reserve determines when, if, and how much to release to the banks.  Money to the Federal Government is a tool that is supposed to be used to enhance productivity within the country.  Its expenditure has nothing to do with its taxable income.  The true value or wealth of the country is the goods and services produced within a fiscal year determined in terms of dollars and cents.

 

If the members of Congress do not understand this concept then they are working against the welfare of the nation.  They are not doing what they were elected to do, run the country positively.  What has existed since the House of Representatives achieved a Republican majority in 2011 has essentially been inaction, or when legislation occurred it has been mainly to hamper economic recovery.

*************************

From the year 2008 on the major banks, first in the United States and then throughout most of the Industrial world, were suddenly on the point of collapse.  In the U.S. one trillion dollars of real estate value disappeared virtually overnight.  The major banking houses were suddenly facing ruin, were ready to go under.  They had speculated in real estate from the 1980s on to the point of insanity in late 2008.  Overnight there was massive unemployment; many people’s homes had larger mortgages than they were then worth.  The country was on the brink of a massive depression.  Banking in the U.S. could conceivably diminish to a trickle.

 

First in 2008, when this madness, brought about by the large banks, both commercial and investment banks occurred, George W. Bush and his Treasury Secretary, Hank Paulson, made massive loans to the banking houses; then this was continued by President Barak Obama in 2009.  Some investment and commercial banks were allowed to go under, their loans and deposits taken over by other big banking houses; but most were saved with additional loans.  (If you’re interested in the specifics of what happened Ben Bernanke the former chairman of the Federal Reserve, has just published a book dealing with all of this.)

***************************

What have the Republicans achieved?  In 2011, through a process known as gerrymandering, favorably setting up voting districts in states they controlled politically, based upon the party registration of the voters, they were able to gain control of the House of Representatives, and they have kept it ever since.  In the Senate they gained control in 2014.  They could conceivably lose it in 2016 when 1/3d of the Senate will run for reelection.

 

The Republican prospective in dealing with the Real Estate Disaster has been to ignore it.  Mitt Romney, when he ran as the Republican Candidate in 2012, spoke about doing away with the banking reform bills passed after the 2008 Crash.  It seems that one of his goals was to bring America back to where it was before the 2008 Disaster.  Fortunately he didn’t get elected or we might be back to the Crash now with the major banking houses again destroying the economy.

 

Since they gained control of the House of Representatives in 2011 the Republicans in the House of Representatives and, for that matter, also in the Senate have strictly followed a policy of Microeconomics (small economics), attempting to run the country as they each run their own households.  The result of this from 2011 on has been to exacerbate the recession, costing additional hundreds of thousands of jobs lost throughout the United States in the federal and state governments and in the general population from monies not spent by these unemployed former government employees.  They have done everything possible to worsen the overall situation.  Luckily the President and the Federal Reserve, despite the Republican actions, have been able to generally put the country well in the direction of economic reform.  The cost of this has been a 53% increase in the National Debt spent by President Barak Obama during his first six years in office.  This included an economic stimulus package, both cutting taxes and extending unemployment benefits to avoid another Great Depression.  He has also increased defense spending and brought about the Parent Protection and Affordable Care Act (Obamacare).

****************************

The National Debt is now 18.4 trillion dollars.  If we go back to the Republican Presidency of Ronald Reagan we get a good idea of why it is so high now.  When Reagan became President in 1981 the National Debt was just under one trillion dollars.  His great fear was that the Soviet Union was militarily ahead of the United States.  He wanted to militarily catch up to them and possibly get ahead of them.  In eight years he added 1.86 trillion dollars, over 100% to the 998 billion debt level bringing it up to well over 2 trillion dollars.

 

In point of fact we actually were well ahead of the Soviet Union in our military preparedness.  The Soviet Union bankrupted itself trying to keep up with the United States.  The problem with the U.S. was that the leadership instinctively knew how well armed the Soviets were and that the contrary information that the government intelligence agencies could provide was supposedly inaccurate and ignored.

 

Under George H.W. Bush, through faulty or stupid use of diplomats, the President of Iraq, Saddam Hussein, got the impression that he could invade Kuwait and the United States would ignore the incident.  After the invasion we had operation Desert Storm.  This war could have been avoided with proper use of diplomacy.  Bush Sr. added 1.554 trillion dollars to the National Debt, an addition 54% in just 4 years as president.

 

Interestingly, I would suspect in reprisal, Saddam Hussein attempted to have George H.W.  Bush assassinated.  The attempt failed.  But apparently his oldest son never forgot this fact.

 

The National Debt increased under Bill Clinton but during the last year of his second term he not only balanced the budget he also reduced the Debt slightly.

 

Shortly after George W. Bush became President he got the U.S. involved in two wars: one in Afghanistan as a result of the destruction of the Twin Towers in New York City and another one in Iraq because, I would suspect, to get even with Saddam Hussein for attempting to kill his “daddy.”  The intelligence agencies in the U.S. felt, I understand, that the “weapons of mass destruction” theory or belief was pure fantasy.  Bush Jr. in eight years added 5.849 trillion to the National Debt increasing the National Debt 101% during his eight year period as president.  A good part of this money was spent fighting a pointless war which destabilized the Middle East and brought into existence such groups as ISIS and what seems hopeless confusion and endless civil war that we are stuck with today in the Middle East.

 

While Obama increased the Debt another 53%, 6.167 trillion dollars, during his first six years in office he did so to keep the country from falling into a deep depression, which had been gradually brought about by doing away with banking restriction laws that had been passed from 1933 on, during the years of the Reagan Presidency.  Reagan and his group apparently believed in a Free Market economy; with all economic decisions being made by the actions of the market.  He allowed the big banking houses, with no Government controls to create a maelstrom.

 

Despite all the Microeconomic moves of the Republican House of Representatives during the first six years of the Obama Presidency he has largely worked the nation toward economic recovery.  Had the Republicans understood basic economics the country could now be undergoing a period of full employment with a much higher tax base that might even be high enough to start reducing the National Debt.

************************

Other questions loom up here: What exactly is the National Debt?  How does it affect the nation?

 

According to a member of the Freedom Caucus who was interviewed on MSNBC he would vote for Paul Ryan as the new Speaker of the House of Representatives when the current one, John Boehner, leaves at the end of October 2015 if he would acknowledge the seriousness of the National Debt, over 18 trillion dollars, and work to reduce it rather than allow the country to continue to move toward bankruptcy.

 

This seems to be a basic value of most Republicans.  They don’t acknowledge that their party was mainly responsible in raising the National Debt to where it is today.  They seem to blame it on the Democrats and want to reduce Federal Government nonessential spending, particularly spending on the poor and aged.

 

This attitude keeps the country on the edge of disaster seemingly going from legislative crisis to legislative crisis.  The Debt Limit bill that was passed with strong Democratic help after the Speaker, John Boehner resigned from the House of Representatives.  In it Congress had to raise the current Debt Limit or face default by legally running out of money with which to pay its bills.  The Treasury Department had stated that Congress must raise the debt limit beyond 18.1 trillion dollars or not be able to meet all its bills by November 3, 2015.  That crisis was resolved in both Houses of Congress with help from the Democrats.  Also in both Houses of Congress funding the Federal Government will come up again in December.  Will Planned Parenthood again create a crisis there?

 

Former Speaker Boehner was able to get such a bill raising the National Debt through Congress before his Speakership ended and only with Democratic help.  The same holds true with the Senate.  The bill was for two years.  President Obama had stated that he will veto any short term bills.

 

The National Debt consists of two parts, one public and one private.  The public part of the Debt is owned in various ways by the Federal Government and is held by the Federal Reserve and such entities as Social Security that currently holds probably over 3 trillion dollars’ worth of these securities, Medicare, the Federal Savings and Loan Corporation Resolution Fund, as well as a number of other government agencies.  These debts held by governmental accounts represent cumulative surpluses, including interest earnings of these accounts.  In 2012 there were at least two direct transfers of 89 billion dollars from the FED to the Treasury that constituted interest paid on the National Debt.

 

The Federal Government admits to owning 40% of its own debt.  The probability is that it is more like 50% or 60% of the money it owes.  For example, besides massive unemployment and the loss of value of the dollar in the 2008 Real Estate Crash there was an intense mortgage problem: since a very large percentage of the mortgages issued had been broken up into microscopic size and the pieces issued by innumerable Hedge Funds into countless securities, the question that arose was who owned all that mortgage paper?

 

At first the bank computers generated documents and most of the banks foreclosed upon homes they did not own.  After this was discovered the banks stopped the foreclosures.  Then the question arose: Who did own these properties?  The answer was no one.  Each property could have been divided into hundreds of pieces, each issued to a different Hedge Fund.  It should have taken twenty of more years to straighten out this mess.  The housing industry, both old and newly constructed homes, would have been in a state of practical nonexistence.  Many older homes whose mortgages were far above their actual value had been deserted by their former owners and stayed empty, and construction companies would have found it nearly impossible to fund their projects.

 

By the Federal Reserve stepping into this problem and dealing with it they were able to largely resolve it in a period of just a few years.  I would guess that the price of resolving this problem cost the Federal Government well over ½ trillion dollars.  What the FED bought was trillions of fractional pieces of mortgage paper that the banks had created over a thirty year period.  Sorting them out would have been unbelievably expensive and probably totally impracticable.

 

Using imaginative monetary policy Ben Bernanke, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, over a period of several years, solved this problem by pumping billions of dollars into the economy.  For a period of well over two years.  The Fed pumped 85 billion dollars into the economy monthly.  Forty billion bought back Government loans and Forty-five billion bought mortgage paper from all 50 states, literally trillions of mortgage pieces each month.   What happened to all this mortgage paper?  The probability is nothing.  It would have been prohibitive to sort all these microscopic pieces of mortgages.  An even then it would have required over 50% of the pieces for any action to be legally taken against the homeowner.  The banks had been in such a rush to continually refinance these properties that record keeping became farcical.

 

I would suspect that after two or three years most, if not all, of the deserted homes were sold for back unpaid taxes.  As for the people who stayed in their homes and couldn’t afford the continued payments, they probably waited for foreclosure that never came.  These people could no longer legally deduct their home interest from their income taxes but they still had quite a bit of extra income which they freely spent adding to the National Cash Flow, and encouraging more employment, within the United States.

 

The private section of the National Debt, the forty billion spent monthly, is money previously borrowed for short to long periods of time by the Federal Government from individuals, both in the United States and foreign countries, by foreign nations, and by numerous other entities.  By this action the Federal Government both allowed long term purchasers of this government paper to purchase long term paper at higher rates of interest and cash them out almost at will.  This process allowed the Federal Government to add all this money to the National Cash Flow continuously for this period.

 

The amount of money available to the public grew at an expediential rate.  Interestingly there was no inflationary increase with all these billions of dollars added to public spending.  Instead this Creative Monetary Policy of the Federal Reserve largely solved the bank mortgage disaster of 2008, made more cash available for economic growth, and moved the nation well into the direction of economic recovery by 2015 from the Real Estate Disaster.

 

It is also well to keep in mind that pretty much the same result could have been achieved, probably at a lower cost, by Congress passing fiscal policy as was requested by President Obama during the third year of his presidency, 2011.  This bill and others that could have been passed later would also have modernized much of our infrastructure and moved this country into the 21st Century.  But the Republicans in Congress have done nothing to really help the country or the bulk of its population.  If anything they have been penny wise and dollar stupid.

 

If the question were raised: Have we as a nation gotten our money’s worth from the ½ billion or so we spend to keep Congress functioning?  The answer is definitely negative.  In fact the situation seems to continually get worse.  With the retirement of the current Speaker of the House of Representatives will the new Speaker, Paul Ryan, be able to get positive legislation passed?  Being a very conservative Republican will he want to do this?

 

The question is currently up in the air.  The Republicans have 247 representatives out of 435.  But 40 of them belong to the Freedom Caucus.  The majority of them presumably support Ryan.  But they are far more conservative than the very conservative 207 other conservative Republicans.  In order to elect a new Speaker 218 affirmative votes were needed.  Ryan was willing to be Speaker if the Freedom Caucus  backed him as Speaker.  The majority of them have voted for him.  What will happen?

 

Meanwhile what about the bill funding the government that has to be passed before the middle of December?  The Treasury will not be able to legally pay the Governments bills unless the funding bill is passed by December of 2015.  It has been kicked down the road for three months.  If the Republicans insist that funding Planned Parenthood be removed from the bill President Obama will veto it.  Also if it is again a short term bill the President will also veto it. What will Ryan do?  What will he want to do?  It was Ryan who originally proposed using the leverage of necessary bills to force its agenda upon the President.