The Weiner Component #141 – Fiscal, Monetary Policy & the Republican Party

English: James Earl "Jimmy" Carter

English: James Earl “Jimmy” Carter (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

English: United States mean duration of unempl...

English: United States mean duration of unemployment 1948-2010. Data source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Average (Mean) Duration of Unemployment [UEMPMEAN] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed August 14, 2010. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

English: A map of the 12 districts of the Unit...

English: A map of the 12 districts of the United States Federal Reserve system. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Historically and in the present, Fiscal and Monetary Policy are the two major tools that the Federal Government is supposed to use to continually fine-tune the American economy.   Fiscal Policy is used by the Congress passing specific economic enhancing laws signed by the President and Monetary Policy is used by the Federal Reserve continually adjusting the U.S. money supply to maintain a healthy economic national environment.

 

During the Presidency of Jimmy Carter (1977 – 1980) unemployment rose to 7%.  This was also the post Viet Nam War period.   From 1977 on the government engaged in an expansive fiscal policy; there was an expansion in Public Works strongly supported by the President.  It averaged $4.38 billion per quarter.

 

At that period I was teaching Social Science classes at a High School in Southern California.  The School District was asked by representatives of the Federal Government to make a wish list of what they would like for the District.  A list of ten items was prepared by District officials and, as an afterthought, someone suggested a second or girl’s gymnasium and it was added to the bottom of the list.  The government officials choose the girl’s or second gymnasium as the item that would create the most jobs.

 

I remember that the high school got a second gym which was gray, the color of the concrete.  The money that paid for the gym ran out at that point and it was a few years before the School District came up with the funds to have the building painted.

 

It seemed that all the tasks and labor involved in building the gymnasium, both directly and indirectly, would create the maximum employment possible for the expenditure of the funds required for the project.  I suspect that Troy High School in Southern California is one of the few secondary schools in the country that has two separate gymnasiums.

 

To understand how this expenditure works for the benefit of the overall economy we have to trace the money and see what happens to it.  Usually money spent is actually spent six to eight times; it is a volatile substance.  For example, in producing and packaging the concrete used in the building the manufacturer has to pay his employees.  They, in turn, have to pay rent or a mortgage or, for that matter, buy food.  The landlord, bank, or supermarket continues the same process, and on and on for six to eight times becomes part of the natural flow within the economy.  This occurs with everyone directly or indirectly involved in producing that building.

 

Every million dollars the government spends creates six to eight million dollars in the exchange of goods and services.  To use an analogy, a child throws a rock into a quiet lake.  There are a large number of ripples spreading out in all directions from where the stone hits the water.  They spread out and dissipate as the stone drops to the bottom of the lake, infinitesimally raising the level of the water.  Consequently the $4.38 billion that the government added quarterly to the economy of the United States was actually generating a little over 26.3 to 35 billion dollars in new productivity every three months.  This also gives us an idea of the volatility of new money added to the National Cash Flow.  Of course if the reverse were to occur for any reason, such as the 2008 Real Estate Crash, the 26.3 to 35 billion dollars would be removed from the National Cash Flow.

 

In 1977, when Jimmy Carter became President, the 95th Congress was elected.  In that Congress the Democrats had a majority in both Houses of Congress; in the House of Representatives they had 292 elected Democrats to 143 Republicans and in the Senate there were 61 Democrats to 30 Republican Senators, a super majority which made the Senate filibuster proof, as only 60 votes are needed to end a filibuster.  The Democrats could pass any legislation they felt was needed and they applied, among other things, fiscal policy to the post Viet Nam War period.  Unemployment during the Carter period was considered high, running from 6.9% to 5.8%, and ending in 1980 at 7%.

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From the beginning of President Lynden Johnson’s acceleration of the Viet Nam War inflation slowly began to increase in the country.  The country was both fighting a war and allowing the public to maintain their peacetime standard of living.  By 1980 it had reached two digits and would that year eventually rise to about 15%.  The economic situation that occurred was labeled, stagflation.  It consisted of both stagnation, high unemployment, and inflation, prices rapidly rising because of shortages brought about by having fought a major war, maintaining the military during the Cold War, and supplying all the needs of the American people at the same time.

 

Generally during a period of inflation there are not enough goods and services available to match the demand and prices rise until a new equilibrium is reached of the goods and services offered.  If anything there should be lower unemployment.  But in this case there was also stagnation; there were not enough jobs for everyone able to work and wanting employment.  This was stagflation, the concurrent existence of two economic opposites.

 

There was a way to break this economic condition by having the Federal Reserve raise interest rates far higher than they were, raising the rate of inflation until it exploded.  But this would throw a lot of small businesses and even some large companies into bankruptcy.  This action would bring about immediate adverse economic conditions for a large number of people; it would bring about a short term depression which would temporarily increase unemployment.

 

President Carter had the Federal Reserve Chairman, Paul Volker, begin this process but then after receiving innumerable complaints President Carter backed off.  The next President, Ronald Reagan, allowed Volker to carry out this policy.  It took about a year and a lot of human misery to break this economic cycle.

 

When this came about, early in the Reagan administration, the President got on national television holding a copy of the Sunday New York Times Business Section and said something to the effect of there were umpteen pages of jobs available according to the newspaper and that if there were no jobs where the people lived then they should go to where there were jobs.  This presentation exacerbated the problem because suddenly there were old jalopies crisscrossing the country, being driven by people looking for employment, following whatever rumor promised jobs somewhere else.  This so-called friendly advice or thoughtless act created the homeless problem in the United States.

 

This policy, by the Federal Reserve which was necessary that broke the inflation cycle which had been begun by President Lynden B. Johnson in the 1960s, created an instant depression but ended the stagflation.  Interest rates dropped to a low single digit where they remained until 2008, when they dropped even further almost approaching zero, where they remain today.

 

As a footnote it should be noted that the people who pay for this low interest are the people in the United States who deposit their money into the banks and receive an interest payment on most of their deposits of one tenth of one percent per year.  The amount of interest most people get on their bank holdings is so low it is not even taxable.

 

Fiscal Policy with other economic remedies ended this economic crisis.  The other equally important economic remedy was Monetary Policy.  This is controlled by the Federal Reserve.

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Monetary Policy is the process that the Federal Reserve uses to control the supply of money, its availability, and the cost of money or its rate of interest in the country.  Its objective is aimed at the growth and stability of the economy.

 

The Federal Reserve (FED) has twelve regional banking districts, each with a major regional bank and each with a possible auxiliary bank covering the entire United States, with the major one in Washington, D.C.  It is a private government banking system that controls all the public banks in the country.

 

The FED’s major function is to regulate the private or public banks and to help control economic growth and stability, as well as maintain low unemployment and maintain predictable exchange rates with other currencies.

 

The tools the FED uses are:

(1) Its Open Market operation, constantly buying and selling bonds to increase or decrease the amount of money available in the National Cash Flow.  Here it works from the Public or National Debt, increasing or decreasing it to fine-tune the economy.

2) Adjusting the Discount Rate, setting the interest rates in the private banks by the amount it charges them interest.  The private banks determine the interest they charge the public based upon the interest they pay the FED.  They have to make a reasonable profit above what they pay to the FED.  The higher the FED’s interest rate the more expensive the money is and the less is borrowed.  Conversely the lower the interest rate potentially the more will be borrowed and used for economic expansion.  And the more employment will occur.  Since the 2008 Real Estate Crash the interest rate has dropped to almost zero (one tenth of one percent), and expansion has very slowly occurred.  In fact we are still, seven years later, in the process of recovering from that crash.

(It should also be noted that since 2011, when the Republicans took control of the House of Representatives there has been no Fiscal Policy.  In fact the House has forced through bills increasing the unemployment level and exacerbating the recession.  They have been very good at worsening economic conditions and then blaming the Democrats for it.

3) The third method is raising the Reserve Requirements that the banks are required to observe.  The public banks have to keep a certain percentage of their deposits for every loan they make.  But regulating the amount that the bank has to keep the Federal Reserve can significantly increase or decrease the amount of money that a bank can lend.

 

Among all the dollars deposited in the banks this would also include demand deposits (checking accounts).  Most people deposit their paychecks and reserve funds in banks which pay them a token interest for these funds.  People can at any time withdraw part or all of their money.  Meanwhile the banks lend out this money.  By law they must keep a small percentage, about five percent.  The banks can then lend out or invest ninety-five percent of the money deposited.  This expands the amount of money in circulation.  If the FED were to raise the Reserve Requirement to ten percent this would lower the amount that the banks can lend out by 50%.

The actual amounts that the banks have to keep in reserve are: up to 14.5million 0%, over 14.5 million to 103.6 million, 3%, over 103.6 million, 10%.  It should also be noted that after a bank lends out all its available funds it can deposit its loan papers with the FED and lend out the money all over again under the same conditions.  It should be noted that once the money lent out is redeposited into the banks 95% of it can again be loaned out.  Interestingly the FED is now considering raising the current reserve requirement.

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Using their Reserve Requirements, up to the end of 2008, the major banking houses in the United States had created trillions of dollars in real estate value by constantly mortgaging and remortgaging individual properties at higher and higher rates throughout the 50 states.  This collapsed virtually overnight towards the end of 2008.  President George W. Bush, at the very end of his presidency bailed out the major banking houses which were then facing bankruptcy.  This process was continued by the new president in 2009, Barak Obama.  While a few banking houses went under and were absorbed by other banking houses the Federal Government had no choice but to bail out most of the banks.  For one thing all the commercial banks had all their deposits insured up to ½ million dollars each by the Federal Insurance Deposit Corporation (FDIC).  The Federal Government would be liable for all this money if most of the banks failed.  In addition most of the business transactions in this country are paid for by either checks or credit cards that are all processed through the banks.  If the major banking houses like the Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and most other bands were to suddenly disappear the movement of money throughout the United States would practically cease and the country would face a depression that would make the Great Depression of 1929 look like a weekend disruption.

 

Interestingly the potential 2016 Republican presidential candidates in their Third Debate, on November 10, 2015, mostly stated that if they were elected to the presidency one of the first things that they would do would be to get rid of the Dodd/Frank Bill that was passed to avert a possible repetition of the 2008 Crash and, if there were to be another economic crash they would not bail out the banks, that nothing is “too big to fail.”

 

What this 3d Republican Debate illustrated was that these people are blatant liars who will say anything to get elected or that they are totally ignorant of Macroeconomics or any other type of economics.  I don’t know which position is worse?  I was also shocked that the “media,” who seems very conscious of “fact checking” didn’t pick up on any of this.

 

If another Banking Crash were to occur and one of them were President of the United States at the time he/she would be forced by their own advisors to again bail out the banks.  For one thing it would probably cost the Federal Government and taxpayers directly more money to not bail them out and the following economic breakdown of the society would last for well over a decade, which is how long it took for the Great Depression to end.

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President Barak Obama’s major problem, after he assumed office in 2009 was dealing with the Real Estate Crash that he inherited from the Bush Administration.  For his first two years in office he had a Democratic majority in both Houses of Congress that cooperated with him.  The Republicans at this point at a meeting agreed to oppose everything he did and make him a one term president.

 

In 2006 Ben Bernanke was appointed Chairman of the Federal Reserve by President George W. Bush.  Bernanke replaced Alan Greenspan.  Bernanke working with President Obama utilized creative Monetary Policy to essentially pull the country out of a major depression without being able, after 2011, to get any cooperation from the House of Representatives.  Up until 2015 there was no Fiscal Policy applied.  Toward the end of 2015 both Republican dominated Houses of Congress passed a bipartisan bill to extend Federal Funding on road construction and maintenance throughout the nation which had initially been passed into law before the Republicans took control of the House and was due to end.

 

Initially after 2011 Bernanke innumerably called for Congress to enact Fiscal Policy legislation.  Obama even presented a proposal for much needed infrastructure improvements which would also create a large number of jobs.  This proposal never even reached the floor of the House.  If anything the Republican House of Representatives cut Federal Government funding to a multitude of programs and decreased, on a number of levels, government jobs actually worsening unemployment under the guise of economizing.

 

The FED then came up with a creative twist to Monetary Policy.  One additional major problem that came with the Real Estate Crash was who owned the properties/homes that then had mortgages on them of greater value than the property was worth.  The mortgages had been divided up into fractional shares, distributed to innumerable hedge funds, and the banks had reorganized record keeping on a very sloppy basis.  It was, in many cases almost impossible to discover who owned 50.1% of many if not most of the properties.  This was a dilemma that would ordinarily take two or more decades to clear up.

 

The FED’s solution to this problem and the shortage of money in the National Cash Flow that was causing the massive unemployment was to add 85 billion to the economy every month for a period of over two years.  45 billion was used to buy mortgage paper (fractional pieced of mortgages) in all fifty states and forty billion was used to buy back debt paper (government bonds).  This added one trillion twenty billion dollars to the National Cash Flow a year.  It was gradually phased down and ended in 2015.

 

Currently it looks like interest rates for the public will remain at almost zero for at least the balance of 2015.  But unemployment has dropped nationally to around 5%.  Creative Monetary Policy had turned a possible great depression into a recession and brought the country well in the direction of economic recovery.  All this has been done under the administration of President Barak Obama largely with no cooperation from the Republicans in Congress.

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Issues are never simple cause and effect actions.  There are always multitudes of variable affected in addition to the major outcome desired.  Everything consists of hard choices.  These should be made by experts who are aware of all the possible outcomes.  Or, at the very least, it will be people who will listen to experts and act accordantly.

 

In November of 2016 a major election is coming up, the next Presidential Election.  Both major political parties will be presenting a host of candidates for the Presidency and Congress.  The entire House of Representatives will be up for election and also one third of the Senate. In addition there will be major elections in all 50 states.  The people will speak by voting or not voting.  If the Republicans maintain their majorities in both Houses of Congress and in the majority of the states then very little will be done in the next four years.  The public by their action or inaction will decide what the future will hold.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Weiner Component #59 – The Chinese Dilemma/Conundrum

English: Third generation mobile phones (TD-SC...

HK Bank of China Tower 中銀大廈 (香港), designed by ...

HK Bank of China Tower 中銀大廈 (香港), designed by I. M. Pei (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

China Mobile

China is in an interesting quandary because the Chinese Communist Government, which is now an autocratic capitalist orientated socialist state that largely has control over all the elements of its society except the domestic money supply; that it has traditionally also controlled, but now watches endlessly increase.  Regardless of what the government does this keeps getting larger, creating an ever-growing inflationary spiral for which the government keeps finding fictional and other means to attempt to control.

Because of a very successful trade balance with innumerable other nations, more and more Yuans have come and continue to come   into the country.  Far more than the government would like to have present.  The problem with foreign trade is that it must be done in the currency of the country buying the products.  The Chinese government does not want these assorted currencies to be traded on the International Currency Exchange against its own money.  This action would raise the value of the Yuan significantly against all other currencies and also lower the rates of the other foreign exchanges.  Therefore the Chinese government has branches of the Bank of China in all her major trading nations that exchanges the various currencies into Yuans, which, in turn, return to China, forever increasing the amount of cash available in that country.  It also gives the Chinese government endless amounts of the currencies of other nations that she has to invest in these trading nations, like, for example, the United States.  There, among other investments, she has over a trillion dollars in U.S. Government securities.

The only way they can decrease this currency flow into China is to decrease the amount of foreign trade.  That action would lead to massive unemployment problems and a growing and continuing bad recession.  The government is, in essence, caught on the horns of a dilemma in which their current mode of operation is the only one that makes sense.  Therefore their domestic currency problem continues to grow.

The problem, here, is that China has about an 8% yearly growth of its GDP (Gross Domestic Product).  This keeps employment high and allows the people an ever-growing standard of living.  It also allows for continued National economic growth.  Because of this positive situation there is an ever-increasing growth of the domestic money supply, creating more money than there are goods and services available, which means that prices keep rising.

China keeps the value of her currency against those of other nations low on the international market, making her goods less expensive in other countries.  This practice gives her a great trade advantage.

In other countries, as we’ve seen, the Chinese have to sell their goods in the currencies of these nations.  The Bank of China has branches in most of the foreign nations that exchange the foreign currencies for Chinese money.  The profits, from this foreign trade, come back to China in Yuans or Chinese money, gradually increasing the amount of currency available in the home country.  This has been going on for a great number of years now bringing about a growing spiral of inflation which the government has attempted to control in interesting ways.

One of the first things the Chinese government did to lower the rate of inflation in their country was to take food items off the CPI (Consumer Price Index) that measures the rate of inflation.  With the cost of food off the CPI the official inflation level dropped significantly.  But promulgating a fiction does not solve a problem.  Next the government started and has continued to raise taxes but there are limits as to how much can be taken from the populace.

The government still had to lessen the amount of money in the National Cash Flow.  She did this by raising all sorts of taxes.  This, in turn, created a new problem.  These new or higher taxes mostly hit the average consumer.  They found their purchasing power significantly going down.  The entrepreneurs who had been and are carrying on most of the foreign trade have had their taxes raised the least; their profit margins keep going up.  Basically there has been and is a redistribution of the money supply in China with the upper percentage of the population’s incomes rising and everyone else’s shrinking.

I imagine the people of China are not too thrilled by any of this.  Not only has the cost of food continually gone up, but so has their taxes.  Their money buys less now than it did in an earlier year.  At some future point something substantial is going to have to be done to rebalance the costs of living or there will be all sorts of protests and problems.

If China is to maintain its 8% growth pattern and full employment the inflation will continue.  To what extent can the government keep up its current system of taxation before the people physically object?

There is another problem China is facing with all this foreign trade and that is what to do with all the foreign currencies that are being exchanged for the Yuan.  China is building up a store of different monies which she has to invest in the countries of their origin.  This also is a dilemma.  What can she do with all these monies?  She can, of course, open up her country to much more trade goods from all over the world.  But that would significantly change her trading balance.

Recently Apple negotiated with China’s leading wireless phone company, China Mobile, to make Apple I-phones readily available in China. China Mobile is the world’s largest mobile phone carrier with 763 million subscribers.  It is estimated that it will sell somewhere between 12 to 39 million I-phones in China.  In fact some experts have more than doubled that number of sales, while others have lowered it.

Smaller mobile phone companies have sold a relatively small number of earlier versions of the I-phone in China.  There are also several million black marker I-phones in existence there.  Both Apple and China Mobile began their sales of the 5C and 5S I-phones on January 17, 2014 in China and the United States. In the U.S. the 5C is selling for $739 and the 5S costs $871.

If China Mobile sells these units for an average of $800, then with these prices if we average 25 million units times the average price of $800, we get two trillion, one hundred million dollars.  It could be much more but it probably will not be less.  Suddenly the trade balance between China and the United States undergoes a dramatic change if favor of the U.S. and China has less U.S. currency.

The outcome of this would be a win, win, win, win situation for everyone involved.  China would benefit by having its inflation rate drop significantly, the U.S. would benefit by having its trade balance decrease favorably, the Chinese people would benefit by having their new toys that are more sophisticated than my desk top computer, and Apple would benefit by upping its profit balance significantly, and, of course, Apple shareholders will benefit by having the value of their shares and dividends rise.

In essence everyone involved in this process comes out ahead.  Is it a one-time transaction?  The answer is, No.  There will no doubt be an Apple 6 phone and an Apple 7 series and so on.

Will this solve China’s dilemma?  No necessarily; but it will help slow it down considerably.  It gives the Chinese government more time to come up with possible solutions to its inflation problem.  Can this occur?  Anything is possible with time.

 

 

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